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Bloem Celtic vs Amazulu — Premier Soccer League 2018

Bloem Celtic
Bloem Celtic
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Amazulu
Amazulu
12/22/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 12Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bloem Celtic44%
×Draw29%
Amazulu27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bloem Celtic
1.27
Amazulu
0.92

Bloem Celtic creates 38% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 119 away

creates per match

Bloem Celtic
1.38
Amazulu
0.84

allows per match

Bloem Celtic
1.00
Amazulu
1.16

finishing

Bloem Celtic+0.00on par
Amazulu+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bloem Celtic ↓

Amazulu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bloem Celtic or draw
73%
Bloem Celtic or Amazulu
71%
Draw or Amazulu
56%

Winning margin

Bloem Celtic wins by 2+
20%
Amazulu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bloem Celtic 1+ goals
72%
Bloem Celtic 2+ goals
36%
Bloem Celtic 3+ goals
14%
Amazulu 1+ goals
60%
Amazulu 2+ goals
23%
Amazulu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)
62%
Amazulu (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bloem Celtic at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Amazulu away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bloem Celtic attack 1.38 + Amazulu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Amazulu attack 0.84 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bloem Celtic scores more
44%
level
29%
Amazulu scores more
27%

Bloem Celtic at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bloem Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Bloem Celtic 1–2 Amazulu

Amazulu beat Bloem Celtic 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium in Bloemfontein, FS.