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Amazulu vs Bloem Celtic — Premier Soccer League 2018

Amazulu
Amazulu
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bloem Celtic
Bloem Celtic
8/24/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 22Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Amazulu44%
×Draw28%
Bloem Celtic28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amazulu
1.28
Bloem Celtic
0.96

Amazulu creates 33% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 45 away

creates per match

Amazulu
1.09
Bloem Celtic
1.02

allows per match

Amazulu
0.89
Bloem Celtic
1.47

finishing

Amazulu+0.00on par
Bloem Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazulu ↓

Bloem Celtic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Amazulu or draw
72%
Amazulu or Bloem Celtic
72%
Draw or Bloem Celtic
56%

Winning margin

Amazulu wins by 2+
20%
Bloem Celtic wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Amazulu 1+ goals
72%
Amazulu 2+ goals
37%
Amazulu 3+ goals
14%
Bloem Celtic 1+ goals
62%
Bloem Celtic 2+ goals
25%
Bloem Celtic 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Amazulu (draw refunded)
61%
Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazulu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.89 · 120 matches

Bloem Celtic away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazulu attack 1.09 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.28

Bloem Celtic attack 1.02 + Amazulu defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Amazulu scores more
44%
level
28%
Bloem Celtic scores more
28%

Amazulu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Amazulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Amazulu 2–2 Bloem Celtic

Amazulu and Bloem Celtic drew 2-2 in Premier Soccer League on August 24, 2020.

The match was played at Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium in Pretoria, GT.