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Bleiburg vs Admira Villach — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Bleiburg
Bleiburg
FT
3 – 2
Admira Villach
Admira Villach
5/11/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 27Karl-Kornberger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bleiburg63%
×Draw19%
Admira Villach17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bleiburg
2.31
Admira Villach
1.13

Bleiburg creates 104% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bleiburg
1.57
Admira Villach
0.94

allows per match

Bleiburg
1.32
Admira Villach
3.06

finishing

Bleiburg+0.00on par
Admira Villach+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bleiburg ↓

Admira Villach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bleiburg or draw
83%
Bleiburg or Admira Villach
81%
Draw or Admira Villach
37%

Winning margin

Bleiburg wins by 2+
41%
Admira Villach wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bleiburg 1+ goals
90%
Bleiburg 2+ goals
67%
Bleiburg 3+ goals
40%
Admira Villach 1+ goals
68%
Admira Villach 2+ goals
31%
Admira Villach 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bleiburg (draw refunded)
78%
Admira Villach (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bleiburg at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.32 · 91 matches

Admira Villach away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bleiburg attack 1.57 + Admira Villach defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.31

Admira Villach attack 0.94 + Bleiburg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bleiburg scores more
63%
level
19%
Admira Villach scores more
17%

Bleiburg at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bleiburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Bleiburg 3–2 Admira Villach

Bleiburg beat Admira Villach 3-2 in Landesliga - Karnten on May 11, 2022.

The match was played at Karl-Kornberger-Stadion in Bleiburg.