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Admira Villach vs Bleiburg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Admira Villach
Admira Villach
FT
3 – 1
Bleiburg
Bleiburg
9/18/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 10Sportplatz ESV Admira Villach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Admira Villach33%
×Draw22%
Bleiburg45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Villach
1.56
Bleiburg
1.85

Bleiburg creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 91 away

creates per match

Admira Villach
1.35
Bleiburg
1.29

allows per match

Admira Villach
2.41
Bleiburg
1.78

finishing

Admira Villach+0.00on par
Bleiburg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Villach ↓

Bleiburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Admira Villach or draw
55%
Admira Villach or Bleiburg
78%
Draw or Bleiburg
67%

Winning margin

Admira Villach wins by 2+
16%
Bleiburg wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Admira Villach 1+ goals
79%
Admira Villach 2+ goals
46%
Admira Villach 3+ goals
21%
Bleiburg 1+ goals
84%
Bleiburg 2+ goals
55%
Bleiburg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Admira Villach (draw refunded)
42%
Bleiburg (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Villach at home — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

Bleiburg away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.78 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Villach attack 1.35 + Bleiburg defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bleiburg attack 1.29 + Admira Villach defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Admira Villach scores more
33%
level
22%
Bleiburg scores more
45%

Bleiburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bleiburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Admira Villach vs Bleiburg

Admira Villach beat Bleiburg 3-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz ESV Admira Villach in Villach.