Blau-Weiß Zorbau 2–2 Auerbach: Result & Stats

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Auerbach

11/30/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 14Sportplatz Zorbau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Blau-Weiß Zorbau27%

×Draw22%

Auerbach52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blau-Weiß ZorbauExpected goals in this matchAuerbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.01

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.40

Auerbach

2.01

Auerbach creates 44% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 62 away

1.53

creates per match

1.79

2.23

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.53

Auerbach

1.79

allows per match

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

2.23

Auerbach

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blau-Weiß Zorbau+0.00on par

Auerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blau-Weiß Zorbau ↓

Auerbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Blau-Weiß Zorbau or draw

48%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau or Auerbach

78%

Draw or Auerbach

73%

Winning margin

Blau-Weiß Zorbau wins by 2+

12%

Auerbach wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 1+ goals

75%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 2+ goals

41%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 3+ goals

17%

Auerbach 1+ goals

87%

Auerbach 2+ goals

59%

Auerbach 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Blau-Weiß Zorbau (draw refunded)

34%

Auerbach (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blau-Weiß Zorbau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.23 · 53 matches

Auerbach away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blau-Weiß Zorbau attack 1.53 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Auerbach attack 1.79 + Blau-Weiß Zorbau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Blau-Weiß Zorbau scores more

27%

level

22%

Auerbach scores more

52%

Auerbach at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff