Auerbach 4–1 Blau-Weiß Zorbau: Result & Stats

Auerbach

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

5/25/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 29Arena zur Vogtlandweide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Auerbach55%

×Draw21%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuerbachExpected goals in this matchBlau-Weiß Zorbau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.31

Auerbach

2.08

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.31

Auerbach creates 59% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 53 away

1.85

creates per match

1.36

1.27

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Auerbach

1.85

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.36

allows per match

Auerbach

1.27

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auerbach+0.00on par

Blau-Weiß Zorbau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auerbach ↓

Blau-Weiß Zorbau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Auerbach or draw

76%

Auerbach or Blau-Weiß Zorbau

79%

Draw or Blau-Weiß Zorbau

45%

Winning margin

Auerbach wins by 2+

33%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Auerbach 1+ goals

87%

Auerbach 2+ goals

61%

Auerbach 3+ goals

34%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 1+ goals

73%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 2+ goals

38%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Auerbach (draw refunded)

70%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auerbach at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Blau-Weiß Zorbau away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auerbach attack 1.85 + Blau-Weiß Zorbau defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.08

Blau-Weiß Zorbau attack 1.36 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Auerbach scores more

55%

level

21%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau scores more

24%

Auerbach at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff