Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 2–3 Arminia Bielefeld U19

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Arminia Bielefeld U19

L. Eismann 89', 63'

G. Gutmann 83'

D. Richter 67'

T. Coşar 15'

2/2/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 1Sportplatz Königsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U1938%

×Draw20%

Arminia Bielefeld U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19Expected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

2.15

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

2.03

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 62 away

2.00

creates per match

1.44

2.86

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

2.00

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.44

allows per match

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

2.86

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19+0.00on par

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 or draw

58%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19

80%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19

62%

Winning margin

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 wins by 2+

20%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 1+ goals

87%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 2+ goals

60%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 3+ goals

33%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

88%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

63%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 attack 2.00 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.03

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 scores more

38%

level

20%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

42%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

T. Coşar

63'

L. Eismann

64'

L. Altreuther← L. Pesch

67'

D. Richter

68'

L. Afolabi← D. Richter

73'

J. Mvutu← S. Waldvogel

73'

L. Struzyna← N. Kangela

83'

B. Afghanyar← E. Arda

83'

K. Valentin Kruse← G. Gutmann

83'

83'

89'

90'

Blau-Weiß

Arminia

⚽

▼

Gutmann

▼

Arda

Goufan

⚽

▼

Richter

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: L. Zampolin

64'▲L. Altreuther←▼L. Pesch

73'▲J. Mvutu←▼S. Waldvogel

73'▲L. Struzyna←▼N. Kangela

90'▲M. Schudy←▼B. Nsiah

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 substitutes

AltreutherMvutuStruzynaSchudyWilhelmBravoKrygiel

Manager: M. Drobe

68'▲L. Afolabi←▼D. Richter

83'▲B. Afghanyar←▼E. Arda

83'▲K. Valentin Kruse←▼G. Gutmann

83'▲L. Unruh←▼T. Coşar

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

AfolabiAfghanyarKruseUnruhZaloha

Match Recap: Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 beat Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 2, 2025.

Goals: T. Coşar (15'), L. Eismann (63', 89'), D. Richter (67'), G. Gutmann (83').

The match was played at Sportplatz Königsdorf in Frechen.

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19