Arminia Bielefeld U19 3–0 Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

J. Kindala 81' (OG)

T. Coşar 59'

M. Lippert 45'

3/30/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 8Böllhoff Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld U1957%

×Draw21%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia Bielefeld U19Expected goals in this matchBlau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.20

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.04

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

1.20

Arminia Bielefeld U19 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 7 away

1.66

creates per match

0.71

1.69

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.66

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

0.71

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.69

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld U19 ↓

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or draw

78%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

79%

Draw or Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

43%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

34%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

87%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

60%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

33%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 1+ goals

70%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 2+ goals

34%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.69 · 59 matches

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.66 + Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.04

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 attack 0.71 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

57%

level

21%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 scores more

22%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

M. Lippert

59'

T. Coşar

63'

L. Afolabi← D. Richter

63'

T. Krüger← G. Gutmann

65'

L. Koch← N. Kangela

65'

S. Waldvogel← B. Nsiah

74'

L. Struzyna← J. Mvutu

74'

V. Morpak← L. Pesch

76'

E. Arda← T. Wegener

76'

L. Unruh← T. Coşar

81'

J. KindalaOwn goal

82'

A. Wilhelm← V. Willems

82'

C. Bravo← N. Pashko

Arminia

Blau-Weiß

🥅

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▼

▼

▼

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⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Coşar

Manager: M. Drobe

63'▲L. Afolabi←▼D. Richter

63'▲T. Krüger←▼G. Gutmann

76'▲E. Arda←▼T. Wegener

76'▲L. Unruh←▼T. Coşar

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

AfolabiKrügerArdaUnruhTheodoridisFucik

Manager: L. Zampolin

65'▲L. Koch←▼N. Kangela

65'▲S. Waldvogel←▼B. Nsiah

74'▲L. Struzyna←▼J. Mvutu

74'▲V. Morpak←▼L. Pesch

82'▲A. Wilhelm←▼V. Willems

82'▲C. Bravo←▼N. Pashko

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 substitutes

KochWaldvogelStruzynaMorpakWilhelmBravoLightfoot

U19 Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld U19 3–0 Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 beat Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 30, 2025.

Goals: M. Lippert (45'), T. Coşar (59'), J. Kindala (81' o.g.).

The match was played at Böllhoff Stadion in Bielefeld.

Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld U19 3–0 Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19