Blackpool 1–1 Wycombe: Result & Stats | League One

Blackpool

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wycombe

B. Heneghan 51'

S. Kashket 8'

10/22/2019

League One · Round 15Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Blackpool37%

×Draw23%

Wycombe40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.67

Blackpool

1.61

Wycombe

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.49

creates per match

1.72

1.63

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Blackpool

1.49

Wycombe

1.72

allows per match

Blackpool

1.63

Wycombe

1.74

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less

Wycombe-0.58scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

60%

Blackpool or Wycombe

77%

Draw or Wycombe

63%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

18%

Wycombe wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

80%

Blackpool 2+ goals

48%

Blackpool 3+ goals

22%

Wycombe 1+ goals

81%

Wycombe 2+ goals

50%

Wycombe 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

48%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.74 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Wycombe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.61

Wycombe attack 1.72 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blackpool scores more

37%

level

23%

Wycombe scores more

40%

Wycombe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Kaikai

Blackpool · M

7.7

Match Events

8'

S. Kashket↳ A. Akinfenwa

51'

B. Heneghan↳ S. Kaikai

66'

Ben Heneghan

68'

James Husband

70'

R. Aarons← S. Kashket

74'

J. Nuttall← N. Delfouneso

80'

C. Guy← J. Thompson

85'

S. Scannell← L. Feeney

85'

N. Ofoborh← C. Thompson

90'

Joe Jacobson

90+2'

M. Bloomfield← N. Freeman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolWycombe

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots9

5Corners3

16Fouls19

Shots

10Total Shots9

1On Target2

6Off Target3

3Blocked4

8Inside Box5

2Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

331Total Passes303

209Accurate Passes173

63%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls19

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2