Blackpool 1–2 Tranmere: Result & Stats | League One

Blackpool

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Tranmere

K. Dewsbury-Hall 58'

J. Vaughan 45+1'

M. Ferrier 37'

3/10/2020

League One · Round 29Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Blackpool52%

×Draw24%

Tranmere23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.02

Blackpool

1.66

Tranmere

1.02

Blackpool creates 63% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 19 away

1.53

creates per match

0.95

1.09

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Blackpool

1.53

Tranmere

0.95

allows per match

Blackpool

1.09

Tranmere

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

77%

Blackpool or Tranmere

76%

Draw or Tranmere

48%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

28%

Tranmere wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

81%

Blackpool 2+ goals

49%

Blackpool 3+ goals

23%

Tranmere 1+ goals

64%

Tranmere 2+ goals

27%

Tranmere 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

69%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 133 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.53 + Tranmere defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.66

Tranmere attack 0.95 + Blackpool defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Blackpool scores more

52%

level

24%

Tranmere scores more

23%

Blackpool at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Ferrier

Tranmere · F

8.0

Match Events

24'

Alex Woodyard

32'

Matthew Virtue-Thick

37'

M. Ferrier↳ C. Woods

45+1'

J. Vaughan↳ M. Ferrier

46'

A. Gnanduillet← J. Nuttall

46'

J. Spearing← M. Virtue-Thick

58'

K. Dewsbury-Hall↳ A. Gnanduillet

60'

C. Taylor← C. Woods

75'

Calum MacDonald

82'

C. Jennings← J. Vaughan

84'

G. Ward← N. Delfouneso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolTranmere

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots9

8Corners6

20Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots9

6On Target2

6Off Target3

4Blocked4

7Inside Box7

9Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

466Total Passes268

361Accurate Passes145

77%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

20Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2