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Blackpool vs Reading — Championship 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Reading
Reading
C. Connolly 9'
7/30/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 1Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackpool42%
×Draw27%
Reading31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.36
Reading
1.13

Blackpool creates 20% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 112 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.23
Reading
0.99

allows per match

Blackpool
1.27
Reading
1.49

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
69%
Blackpool or Reading
73%
Draw or Reading
58%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
20%
Reading wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
74%
Blackpool 2+ goals
39%
Blackpool 3+ goals
16%
Reading 1+ goals
68%
Reading 2+ goals
31%
Reading 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
57%
Reading (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Reading attack 0.99 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Blackpool scores more
42%
level
27%
Reading scores more
31%

Blackpool at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
C. ConnollyBlackpoolBlackpool · D
8.3

Match Events

9'
C. Connolly
65'
K. Dougall← M. Virtue-Thick
71'
S. Lavery← G. Madine
80'
Kenneth Dougall
82'
T. Corbeanu← S. Carey
83'
J. Thorniley← D. Thompson
83'
C. Hamilton← J. Yates
83'
S. Long← O. Ejaria

Possession

48%Blackpool

Shots

10Blackpool

Pass accuracy

50%Blackpool

Statistics

BlackpoolReading
Overview
48%Possession52%
10Total Shots12
3Corners10
12Fouls7
Shots
10Total Shots12
5On Target3
2Off Target5
3Blocked4
7Inside Box11
3Outside Box1
Passing
48%Possession52%
393Total Passes422
304Accurate Passes321
77%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides1

Championship: Blackpool 1–0 Reading

Blackpool beat Reading 1-0 in Championship on July 30, 2022.

Goals: C. Connolly (9').

Reading controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.