Blackpool 2–2 Plymouth: Result & Stats | League One

Blackpool

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Plymouth

J. Yates 64' (pen)

S. Kaikai 47'

J. Edwards 90+1'

R. Hardie 12'

3/27/2021

League One · Round 38Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackpool29%

×Draw23%

Plymouth48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.81

Blackpool

1.35

Plymouth

1.81

Plymouth creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.49

creates per match

2.00

1.63

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Blackpool

1.49

Plymouth

2.00

allows per match

Blackpool

1.63

Plymouth

1.22

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less

Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

52%

Blackpool or Plymouth

77%

Draw or Plymouth

71%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

12%

Plymouth wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

74%

Blackpool 2+ goals

39%

Blackpool 3+ goals

15%

Plymouth 1+ goals

84%

Plymouth 2+ goals

54%

Plymouth 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

37%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Blackpool scores more

29%

level

23%

Plymouth scores more

48%

Plymouth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Edwards

Plymouth · D

7.7

Match Events

12'

R. Hardie

46'

D. Grétarsson← J. Thorniley

47'

S. Kaikai

64'

J. YatesPenalty

70'

B. Moore← Panutche Camará

82'

E. Robson← E. Embleton

84'

L. Jephcott← A. Lewis

89'

K. Lolos← R. Hardie

90+1'

J. Edwards↳ C. Grant

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolPlymouth

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots13

1Corners5

14Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots13

4On Target5

4Off Target6

3Blocked2

6Inside Box9

5Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

443Total Passes472

312Accurate Passes333

70%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

0Offsides1