Blackpool 2–2 Plymouth: Result & Stats | League One

Blackpool

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Plymouth

C. Tilt 90+2'

M. Bola 84'

R. Edwards 73'

F. Ladapo 4'

3/30/2019

League One · Round 40Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackpool29%

×Draw23%

Plymouth48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.81

Blackpool

1.35

Plymouth

1.81

Plymouth creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.49

creates per match

2.00

1.63

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Blackpool

1.49

Plymouth

2.00

allows per match

Blackpool

1.63

Plymouth

1.22

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less

Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

52%

Blackpool or Plymouth

77%

Draw or Plymouth

71%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

12%

Plymouth wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

74%

Blackpool 2+ goals

39%

Blackpool 3+ goals

15%

Plymouth 1+ goals

84%

Plymouth 2+ goals

54%

Plymouth 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

37%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Blackpool scores more

29%

level

23%

Plymouth scores more

48%

Plymouth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

F. Ladapo↳ Ruben Lameiras

9'

O. Threlkeld← J. Riley

19'

Armand Gnanduillet

55'

Graham Carey

62'

Y. Songo'o← A. Sarcevic

71'

C. Long← A. Evans

72'

N. Kirby← N. Delfouneso

73'

R. Edwards↳ G. Carey

77'

Yann Songo'o

80'

Jay Spearing

82'

H. Pritchard← M. Virtue-Thick

84'

M. Bola

88'

R. Taylor← F. Ladapo

90+2'

C. Tilt↳ A. Gnanduillet

Blackpool

Plymouth

1

Macey

3

Sawyer

14

Canavan

2

▼

Riley

5

⚽

Edwards

8

Fox

10

A

Carey

7

▼

Sarcevic

6

Ness

11

A

Lameiras

19

⚽

▼

Ladapo

37

Mafoumbi

12

Nottingha

27

⚽

Bola

16

⚽

8

24

6

17

▼

Virtue-Th

5

▼

Evans

7

▼

Delfounes

21

A

Gnanduill

Manager: T. McPhillips

71'▲C. Long←▼A. Evans

72'▲N. Kirby←▼N. Delfouneso

82'▲H. Pritchard←▼M. Virtue-Thick

Blackpool substitutes

31Long23Kirby14Pritchard3Anderton11Dodoo13Boney19Taylor

Manager: D. Adams

9'▲O. Threlkeld←▼J. Riley

62'▲Y. Songo'o←▼A. Sarcevic

88'▲R. Taylor←▼F. Ladapo

Plymouth substitutes

26Threlkeld4Songo'o9Taylor13Anderson20Jones21Letheren23Smith-Brown