Blackpool 0–2 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

AFC Wimbledon

D. Orsi-Dadomo 63', 38' (pen)

10/4/2025

League One · Round 11Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackpool47%

×Draw24%

AFC Wimbledon29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.29

Blackpool

1.71

AFC Wimbledon

1.29

Blackpool creates 33% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.49

creates per match

0.95

1.63

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Blackpool

1.49

AFC Wimbledon

0.95

allows per match

Blackpool

1.63

AFC Wimbledon

1.92

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less

AFC Wimbledon+0.38scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

71%

Blackpool or AFC Wimbledon

76%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

53%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

25%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

82%

Blackpool 2+ goals

51%

Blackpool 3+ goals

24%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

72%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

37%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

62%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.92 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.95 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Blackpool scores more

47%

level

24%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

29%

Blackpool at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

D. Orsi-Dadomo

AFC Wimbledon · F

7.3

Match Events

34'

Z. Ashworth← H. Coulson

38'

D. Orsi-DadomoPenalty

39'

Oliver Casey

45+1'

Josh Bowler

45+5'

Isaac Ogundere

46'

A. Fletcher← F. Horsfall

63'

D. Orsi-Dadomo

64'

T. Bloxham← D. Taylor

78'

E. Hansson← C. Hamilton

79'

M. Browne← D. Orsi-Dadomo

80'

C. Maycock← M. Hippolyte

87'

A. Sasu← O. Bugiel

88'

Lee Evans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolAFC

Overview

55%Possession45%

3Total Shots8

1Corners2

14Fouls13

Shots

3Total Shots8

2On Target4

1Off Target3

0Blocked1

1Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

445Total Passes358

313Accurate Passes229

70%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3

League One: Blackpool 0–2 AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon beat Blackpool 2-0 in League One on October 4, 2025.

Goals: D. Orsi-Dadomo (38' pen, 63').

Blackpool controlled possession (55%) and registered 3 shots to 8.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool.

Blackpool vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Blackpool 0–2 AFC Wimbledon