AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Blackpool: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Blackpool

2/22/2020

League One · Round 35The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

AFC Wimbledon41%

×Draw25%

Blackpool33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.30

AFC Wimbledon

1.48

Blackpool

1.30

AFC Wimbledon creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.22

creates per match

0.94

1.66

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.22

Blackpool

0.94

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.66

Blackpool

1.75

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

AFC Wimbledon-0.22scores less

Blackpool+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

67%

AFC Wimbledon or Blackpool

75%

Draw or Blackpool

59%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

20%

Blackpool wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

77%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

43%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

19%

Blackpool 1+ goals

73%

Blackpool 2+ goals

37%

Blackpool 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

55%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.75 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.22 + Blackpool defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Blackpool attack 0.94 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

41%

level

25%

Blackpool scores more

33%

AFC Wimbledon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

L. O'Neill

AFC Wimbledon · D

8.1

Match Events

50'

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

66'

A. Roscrow← K. Appiah

77'

S. McLoughlin← C. Reilly

80'

J. Nuttall← G. Madine

88'

R. McDonald← T. Thomas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCBlackpool

Overview

39%Possession61%

14Total Shots12

9Corners9

11Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots12

4On Target2

7Off Target2

3Blocked8

9Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

230Total Passes359

122Accurate Passes249

53%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1