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Blackburn vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Blackburn
Blackburn
Preview
15:00
West Brom
West Brom
1/16/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26Ewood Park
40%
West Brom
model favours
32%28%40%

West Brom score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Blackburn32%
×Draw28%
West Brom40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.07
West Brom
1.23

West Brom creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.20
West Brom
1.42

allows per match

Blackburn
1.03
West Brom
0.94

finishing

Blackburn-0.29scores less
West Brom-0.50scores less

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
60%
Blackburn or West Brom
72%
Draw or West Brom
68%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
12%
West Brom wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
66%
Blackburn 2+ goals
29%
Blackburn 3+ goals
9%
West Brom 1+ goals
71%
West Brom 2+ goals
35%
West Brom 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
45%
West Brom (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.03 · 11 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.94 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.20 + West Brom defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

West Brom attack 1.42 + Blackburn defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blackburn scores more
32%
level
28%
West Brom scores more
40%

West Brom at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Blackburn play Defensively solid, West Brom Attack-heavy
  • Blackburn fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Blackburn
Defensively solid
West Brom
Attack-heavy
51%Possession55%
76%Pass accuracy83%
10.4ShotsBiggest gap13.8
1.34xG1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BlackburnWest Brom

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Blackburn
DLWDL
Brom
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blackburn face West Brom (Championship)

Championship returns with Blackburn hosting West Brom. Match starts January 16, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Blackburn host West Brom at Ewood Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.