Blackburn 2–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

West Brom

H. Leonard 22'

D. Markanday 20'

M. Phillips 50'

8/5/2023

Championship · Round 1Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 53+ matches

Blackburn41%

×Draw28%

West Brom32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.11

Blackburn

1.29

West Brom

1.11

Blackburn creates 16% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 53 away

1.33

creates per match

1.14

1.09

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

West Brom

1.14

allows per match

Blackburn

1.09

West Brom

1.24

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less

West Brom-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

68%

Blackburn or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

59%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

18%

West Brom wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

72%

Blackburn 2+ goals

37%

Blackburn 3+ goals

14%

West Brom 1+ goals

67%

West Brom 2+ goals

30%

West Brom 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

56%

West Brom (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 60 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + West Brom defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

West Brom attack 1.14 + Blackburn defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blackburn scores more

41%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

32%

Blackburn at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

L. Travis

Blackburn · M

8.0

Match Events

20'

D. Markanday↳ L. Travis

22'

H. Leonard↳ S. Szmodics

29'

30'

45+4'

48'

50'

M. Phillips↳ J. Wallace

53'

Cédric Kipré

55'

Jed Wallace

59'

R. Hedges← D. Markanday

59'

A. Wharton← S. Tronstad

66'

J. Swift← N. Chalobah

71'

A. Mowatt← O. Yokuşlu

71'

J. Sarmiento← M. Phillips

72'

K. Bartley← C. Kipré

78'

C. Brittain← J. Rankin-Costello

85'

T. Gardner-Hickman← J. Molumby

87'

Ryan Hedges

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnWest

Overview

59%Possession41%

12Total Shots14

1.45Expected Goals (xG)0.83

6Corners5

11Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots14

3On Target4

4Off Target4

5Blocked6

11Inside Box10

1Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

521Total Passes345

421Accurate Passes242

81%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2