Blackburn 1–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

West Brom

J. Rothwell 63'

F. Krovinović 41'

7/11/2020

Championship · Round 43Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Blackburn39%

×Draw29%

West Brom32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.04

Blackburn

1.19

West Brom

1.04

Blackburn creates 14% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 36 away

1.22

creates per match

1.17

0.92

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Blackburn

1.22

West Brom

1.17

allows per match

Blackburn

0.92

West Brom

1.17

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.22scores less

West Brom-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

68%

Blackburn or West Brom

71%

Draw or West Brom

61%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

17%

West Brom wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

70%

Blackburn 2+ goals

33%

Blackburn 3+ goals

12%

West Brom 1+ goals

65%

West Brom 2+ goals

28%

West Brom 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

55%

West Brom (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.92 · 20 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.22 + West Brom defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

West Brom attack 1.17 + Blackburn defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blackburn scores more

39%

level

29%

West Brom scores more

32%

Blackburn at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Walton

Blackburn · G

8.2

Match Events

31'

Jake Livermore

41'

F. Krovinović↳ C. Austin

59'

H. Robson-Kanu← C. Austin

60'

G. Diangana← K. Grosicki

61'

L. Holtby← A. Armstrong

61'

E. Bennett← R. Nyambe

61'

J. Rothwell← D. Samuel

61'

S. Gallagher← B. Johnson

63'

J. Rothwell↳ S. Gallagher

68'

R. Harper← J. Livermore

72'

Lewis Travis

75'

J. Davenport← S. Downing

80'

C. Robinson← F. Krovinović

90'

Darragh Lenihan

90'

Semi Ajayi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnWest

Overview

50%Possession50%

7Total Shots18

3Corners7

14Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots18

4On Target8

1Off Target6

2Blocked4

6Inside Box16

1Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

404Total Passes394

303Accurate Passes301

75%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides5