Blackburn 2–0 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sunderland

S. Wharton 49'

B. Brereton 32'

10/18/2022

Championship · Round 16Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Blackburn42%

×Draw27%

Sunderland31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.11

Blackburn

1.33

Sunderland

1.11

Blackburn creates 20% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 40 away

1.33

creates per match

1.14

1.09

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Sunderland

1.14

allows per match

Blackburn

1.09

Sunderland

1.32

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less

Sunderland-0.01on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

69%

Blackburn or Sunderland

73%

Draw or Sunderland

58%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

19%

Sunderland wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

74%

Blackburn 2+ goals

38%

Blackburn 3+ goals

15%

Sunderland 1+ goals

67%

Sunderland 2+ goals

30%

Sunderland 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

57%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 60 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Sunderland defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sunderland attack 1.14 + Blackburn defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Blackburn scores more

42%

level

27%

Sunderland scores more

31%

Blackburn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

R. Hedges

Blackburn · M

8.0

Match Events

30'

32'

40'

48'

49'

S. Wharton↳ R. Hedges

64'

A. Diallo← D. Neil

64'

A. Ba← E. Embleton

64'

J. Bennette← A. Pritchard

65'

Sammie Szmodics

66'

Jewison Bennette

73'

T. Hume← A. Alese

74'

Hayden Carter

77'

T. Dolan← S. Szmodics

78'

J. Vale← S. Gallagher

81'

É. Michut← C. Evans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnSunderland

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots14

3Corners7

16Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots14

3On Target4

6Off Target7

2Blocked3

5Inside Box9

6Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

340Total Passes524

273Accurate Passes450

80%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1