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Blackburn vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
Preview
18:45
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
9/8/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 6Ewood Park
Big match
37%
Blackburn
model favours
37%27%35%
1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Blackburn37%
×Draw27%
Sheffield Utd35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.25
Sheffield Utd
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 39 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.31
Sheffield Utd
1.36

allows per match

Blackburn
1.06
Sheffield Utd
1.18

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less
Sheffield Utd+0.10scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
65%
Blackburn or Sheffield Utd
73%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
63%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
16%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
71%
Blackburn 2+ goals
36%
Blackburn 3+ goals
13%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
70%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
34%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
51%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sheffield Utd attack 1.36 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Blackburn scores more
37%
level
27%
Sheffield Utd scores more
35%

Blackburn at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Blackburn
Balanced
Sheffield Utd
Attack-heavy
50%Possession53%
75%Pass accuracy78%
11.1Shots13.6
1.16xGBiggest gap1.57
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BlackburnSheffield Utd

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Blackburn
1
Draws
6
Sheffield Utd
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 40%
3–11–31–10–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Blackburn
LWWDL
Utd
WWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blackburn face Sheffield Utd (Championship)

Championship returns with Blackburn hosting Sheffield Utd. Match starts September 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Blackburn host Sheffield Utd at Ewood Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.