Blackburn 1–0 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sheffield Utd

H. Pickering 5'

3/4/2023

Championship · Round 35Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 41+ matches

Blackburn38%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Utd35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.19

Blackburn

1.25

Sheffield Utd

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 41 away

1.31

creates per match

1.32

1.06

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Blackburn

1.31

Sheffield Utd

1.32

allows per match

Blackburn

1.06

Sheffield Utd

1.19

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less

Sheffield Utd+0.07on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

65%

Blackburn or Sheffield Utd

73%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

62%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

16%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

71%

Blackburn 2+ goals

36%

Blackburn 3+ goals

13%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

70%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

33%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

52%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sheffield Utd attack 1.32 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Blackburn scores more

38%

level

27%

Sheffield Utd scores more

35%

Blackburn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Buckley

Blackburn · M

7.9

Match Events

5'

H. Pickering↳ T. Dolan

48'

62'

62'

64'

67'

71'

75'

76'

77'

82'

82'

B. Brereton← T. Dolan

89'

John Egan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnSheffield

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots14

3Corners8

8Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots14

2On Target4

5Off Target6

4Blocked4

5Inside Box11

6Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

377Total Passes449

267Accurate Passes332

71%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2