Blackburn 0–2 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sheffield Utd

T. Campbell 64'

H. Burrows 16'

11/2/2024

Championship · Round 13Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Blackburn37%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Utd35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.21

Blackburn

1.25

Sheffield Utd

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 39 away

1.31

creates per match

1.36

1.06

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Blackburn

1.31

Sheffield Utd

1.36

allows per match

Blackburn

1.06

Sheffield Utd

1.18

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less

Sheffield Utd+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

65%

Blackburn or Sheffield Utd

73%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

63%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

16%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

71%

Blackburn 2+ goals

36%

Blackburn 3+ goals

13%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

70%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

34%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

51%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sheffield Utd attack 1.36 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Blackburn scores more

37%

level

27%

Sheffield Utd scores more

35%

Blackburn at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

H. Burrows

Sheffield Utd · D

8.5

Match Events

16'

H. Burrows

43'

Jack Robinson

50'

Callum O'Hare

54'

T. Campbell← R. Brewster

61'

A. Weimann← R. Hedges

61'

C. Brittain← T. Dolan

64'

T. Campbell

66'

G. Hamer← C. OHare

66'

A. Brooks← J. Rak-Sakyi

72'

H. Pickering← J. Rankin-Costello

72'

M. Gueye← Y. Ohashi

72'

J. Buckley← L. Travis

75'

Makhtar Gueye

90+4'

F. Seriki← A. Gilchrist

90+4'

S. McCallum← K. Moore

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnSheffield

Overview

58%Possession42%

9Total Shots20

0.61Expected Goals (xG)2.19

5Corners8

11Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots20

0On Target9

3Off Target4

6Blocked7

8Inside Box14

1Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

484Total Passes353

413Accurate Passes285

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

0.00Goals Prevented0.00

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0