Blackburn 3–1 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sheffield Utd

I. Poveda-Ocampo 70'

B. Brereton 59'

R. Khadra 37'

R. Brewster 2'

11/6/2021

Championship · Round 17Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Blackburn38%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Utd35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.19

Blackburn

1.26

Sheffield Utd

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

1.33

creates per match

1.27

1.11

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Sheffield Utd

1.27

allows per match

Blackburn

1.11

Sheffield Utd

1.19

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less

Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

65%

Blackburn or Sheffield Utd

73%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

62%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

17%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

72%

Blackburn 2+ goals

36%

Blackburn 3+ goals

13%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

70%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

33%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

52%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

Sheffield Utd attack 1.27 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Blackburn scores more

38%

level

27%

Sheffield Utd scores more

35%

Blackburn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

I. Poveda-Ocampo

Blackburn · M

8.3

Match Events

2'

R. Brewster↳ B. Sharp

5'

Jayden Bogle

24'

John Fleck

37'

R. Khadra↳ J. Davenport

59'

B. Brereton↳ I. Poveda-Ocampo

64'

I. Ndiaye← J. Fleck

64'

L. Mousset← R. Brewster

67'

T. Dolan← R. Khadra

70'

I. Poveda-Ocampo

76'

Darragh Lenihan

78'

J. Rothwell← J. Davenport

80'

Oliver Norwood

80'

G. Baldock← J. Bogle

90+3'

D. Butterworth← I. Poveda-Ocampo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnSheffield

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots9

4Corners8

9Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots9

6On Target4

5Off Target3

1Blocked2

7Inside Box8

5Outside Box1

Passing

39%Possession61%

319Total Passes509

245Accurate Passes412

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1