Blackburn 1–1 Coventry: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Coventry

S. Gallagher 39'

B. Wilson 90+5'

4/19/2023

Championship · Round 43Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Blackburn36%

×Draw27%

Coventry37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.29

Blackburn

1.28

Coventry

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 55 away

1.33

creates per match

1.47

1.10

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Coventry

1.47

allows per match

Blackburn

1.10

Coventry

1.23

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.28scores less

Coventry+0.06on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

63%

Blackburn or Coventry

73%

Draw or Coventry

64%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

16%

Coventry wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

72%

Blackburn 2+ goals

37%

Blackburn 3+ goals

14%

Coventry 1+ goals

72%

Coventry 2+ goals

37%

Coventry 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

50%

Coventry (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Coventry defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.28

Coventry attack 1.47 + Blackburn defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Blackburn scores more

36%

level

27%

Coventry scores more

37%

Coventry at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

G. Hamer

Coventry · M

7.9

Match Events

39'

S. Gallagher↳ J. Rankin-Costello

45+4'

Lewis Travis

45+3'

J. Wilson-Esbrand← B. Sheaf

46'

L. Kelly← J. Bidwell

73'

T. Dolan← S. Gallagher

74'

S. Wharton← C. Brittain

74'

T. Walker← J. Eccles

80'

Joe Rankin-Costello

82'

F. Dabo← B. Norton-Cuffy

82'

J. Panzo← K. McFadzean

84'

T. Morton← A. Wharton

84'

S. Thomas← J. Rankin-Costello

90+1'

Ryan Hedges

90'

Callum Doyle

90+5'

B. Wilson↳ G. Hamer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnCoventry

Overview

55%Possession45%

6Total Shots4

5Corners6

14Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots4

2On Target3

0Off Target1

4Blocked0

5Inside Box1

1Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

429Total Passes335

314Accurate Passes222

73%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1