Black Man Warrior 1–1 BEA Mountain: Result & Stats

Black Man Warrior

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

BEA Mountain

11/27/2025

LFA First Division · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Black Man Warrior27%

×Draw25%

BEA Mountain47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Black Man WarriorExpected goals in this matchBEA Mountain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.54

Black Man Warrior

1.10

BEA Mountain

1.54

BEA Mountain creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 74 away

1.08

creates per match

1.84

1.23

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Black Man Warrior

1.08

BEA Mountain

1.84

allows per match

Black Man Warrior

1.23

BEA Mountain

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Black Man Warrior+0.00on par

BEA Mountain+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Man Warrior ↓

BEA Mountain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Black Man Warrior or draw

53%

Black Man Warrior or BEA Mountain

75%

Draw or BEA Mountain

73%

Winning margin

Black Man Warrior wins by 2+

10%

BEA Mountain wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Black Man Warrior 1+ goals

67%

Black Man Warrior 2+ goals

30%

Black Man Warrior 3+ goals

10%

BEA Mountain 1+ goals

79%

BEA Mountain 2+ goals

45%

BEA Mountain 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)

36%

BEA Mountain (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Man Warrior at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

BEA Mountain away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.11 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Man Warrior attack 1.08 + BEA Mountain defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

BEA Mountain attack 1.84 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Black Man Warrior scores more

27%

level

25%

BEA Mountain scores more

47%

BEA Mountain at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "BEA Mountain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff