BEA Mountain 5–0 Black Man Warrior: Result & Stats

BEA Mountain

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Black Man Warrior

12/11/2024

LFA First Division · Round 2TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

BEA Mountain52%

×Draw26%

Black Man Warrior22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BEA MountainExpected goals in this matchBlack Man Warrior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.87

BEA Mountain

1.50

Black Man Warrior

0.87

BEA Mountain creates 72% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 27 away

1.74

creates per match

0.85

0.89

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

BEA Mountain

1.74

Black Man Warrior

0.85

allows per match

BEA Mountain

0.89

Black Man Warrior

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BEA Mountain+0.00on par

Black Man Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BEA Mountain ↓

Black Man Warrior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

BEA Mountain or draw

78%

BEA Mountain or Black Man Warrior

74%

Draw or Black Man Warrior

48%

Winning margin

BEA Mountain wins by 2+

27%

Black Man Warrior wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

BEA Mountain 1+ goals

78%

BEA Mountain 2+ goals

44%

BEA Mountain 3+ goals

19%

Black Man Warrior 1+ goals

58%

Black Man Warrior 2+ goals

22%

Black Man Warrior 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

BEA Mountain (draw refunded)

70%

Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BEA Mountain at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 74 matches

Black Man Warrior away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BEA Mountain attack 1.74 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.50

Black Man Warrior attack 0.85 + BEA Mountain defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

BEA Mountain scores more

52%

level

26%

Black Man Warrior scores more

22%

BEA Mountain at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "BEA Mountain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff