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Black Leopards vs Bidvest Wits — Premier Soccer League 2018

Black Leopards
Black Leopards
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bidvest Wits
Bidvest Wits
9/2/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 23FNB Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Black Leopards27%
×Draw30%
Bidvest Wits43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Leopards
0.86
Bidvest Wits
1.16

Bidvest Wits creates 35% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 30 away

creates per match

Black Leopards
1.00
Bidvest Wits
1.17

allows per match

Black Leopards
1.15
Bidvest Wits
0.73

finishing

Black Leopards+0.00on par
Bidvest Wits+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Leopards ↓

Bidvest Wits →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Black Leopards or draw
57%
Black Leopards or Bidvest Wits
70%
Draw or Bidvest Wits
73%

Winning margin

Black Leopards wins by 2+
9%
Bidvest Wits wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Black Leopards 1+ goals
58%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
21%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
6%
Bidvest Wits 1+ goals
69%
Bidvest Wits 2+ goals
32%
Bidvest Wits 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Black Leopards (draw refunded)
39%
Bidvest Wits (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Leopards at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

Bidvest Wits away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Leopards attack 1.00 + Bidvest Wits defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Bidvest Wits attack 1.17 + Black Leopards defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Black Leopards scores more
27%
level
30%
Bidvest Wits scores more
43%

Bidvest Wits at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bidvest Wits will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Black Leopards 1–0 Bidvest Wits

Black Leopards beat Bidvest Wits 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on September 2, 2020.

The match was played at FNB Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.