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Bidvest Wits vs Black Leopards — Premier Soccer League 2018

Bidvest Wits
Bidvest Wits
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Black Leopards
Black Leopards
3/10/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 19BidVest Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bidvest Wits54%
×Draw25%
Black Leopards21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidvest Wits
1.62
Black Leopards
0.92

Bidvest Wits creates 76% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 47 away

creates per match

Bidvest Wits
1.43
Black Leopards
0.87

allows per match

Bidvest Wits
0.97
Black Leopards
1.81

finishing

Bidvest Wits+0.00on par
Black Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidvest Wits ↓

Black Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bidvest Wits or draw
79%
Bidvest Wits or Black Leopards
75%
Draw or Black Leopards
46%

Winning margin

Bidvest Wits wins by 2+
29%
Black Leopards wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bidvest Wits 1+ goals
80%
Bidvest Wits 2+ goals
48%
Bidvest Wits 3+ goals
22%
Black Leopards 1+ goals
60%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
23%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bidvest Wits (draw refunded)
72%
Black Leopards (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidvest Wits at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Black Leopards away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidvest Wits attack 1.43 + Black Leopards defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.62

Black Leopards attack 0.87 + Bidvest Wits defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bidvest Wits scores more
54%
level
25%
Black Leopards scores more
21%

Bidvest Wits at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bidvest Wits will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bidvest Wits vs Black Leopards

Bidvest Wits beat Black Leopards 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on March 10, 2020.

The match was played at BidVest Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.