Black Leopards 1–0 Ajax Cape Town: Result & Stats

Black Leopards

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ajax Cape Town

9/9/2020

Premier Soccer League · Playoffs - 1FNB Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Black Leopards40%

×Draw29%

Ajax Cape Town30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Black LeopardsExpected goals in this matchAjax Cape Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.99

Black Leopards

1.19

Ajax Cape Town

0.99

Black Leopards creates 20% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 19 away

1.00

creates per match

0.84

1.15

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Black Leopards

1.00

Ajax Cape Town

0.84

allows per match

Black Leopards

1.15

Ajax Cape Town

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Black Leopards+0.00on par

Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Leopards ↓

Ajax Cape Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Black Leopards or draw

70%

Black Leopards or Ajax Cape Town

71%

Draw or Ajax Cape Town

60%

Winning margin

Black Leopards wins by 2+

17%

Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Black Leopards 1+ goals

70%

Black Leopards 2+ goals

33%

Black Leopards 3+ goals

12%

Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals

63%

Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals

26%

Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Black Leopards (draw refunded)

57%

Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Leopards at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

Ajax Cape Town away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Leopards attack 1.00 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.84 + Black Leopards defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Black Leopards scores more

40%

level

29%

Ajax Cape Town scores more

30%

Black Leopards at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Black Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff