Ajax Cape Town 0–2 Black Leopards: Result & Stats

Ajax Cape Town

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Black Leopards

9/18/2020

Premier Soccer League · Playoffs - 1Rand Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ajax Cape Town45%

×Draw27%

Black Leopards28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ajax Cape TownExpected goals in this matchBlack Leopards

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.04

Ajax Cape Town

1.38

Black Leopards

1.04

Ajax Cape Town creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 47 away

0.95

creates per match

0.87

1.21

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Ajax Cape Town

0.95

Black Leopards

0.87

allows per match

Ajax Cape Town

1.21

Black Leopards

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par

Black Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Cape Town ↓

Black Leopards →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ajax Cape Town or draw

72%

Ajax Cape Town or Black Leopards

73%

Draw or Black Leopards

55%

Winning margin

Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+

21%

Black Leopards wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals

75%

Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals

40%

Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals

16%

Black Leopards 1+ goals

65%

Black Leopards 2+ goals

28%

Black Leopards 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)

61%

Black Leopards (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Cape Town at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Black Leopards away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.95 + Black Leopards defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.38

Black Leopards attack 0.87 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ajax Cape Town scores more

45%

level

27%

Black Leopards scores more

28%

Ajax Cape Town at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ajax Cape Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff