Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

BKMA vs Alashkert II — First League 2019

BKMA
BKMA
FT
1 – 2
Alashkert II
Alashkert II
6/11/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

BKMA68%
×Draw17%
Alashkert II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKMA
2.67
Alashkert II
1.19

BKMA creates 124% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 64 away

creates per match

BKMA
2.76
Alashkert II
1.39

allows per match

BKMA
1.00
Alashkert II
2.58

finishing

BKMA+0.00on par
Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA ↓

Alashkert II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

BKMA or draw
85%
BKMA or Alashkert II
83%
Draw or Alashkert II
32%

Winning margin

BKMA wins by 2+
47%
Alashkert II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

BKMA 1+ goals
93%
BKMA 2+ goals
74%
BKMA 3+ goals
49%
Alashkert II 1+ goals
70%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
33%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

BKMA (draw refunded)
82%
Alashkert II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA attack 2.76 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.67

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + BKMA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

BKMA scores more
68%
level
17%
Alashkert II scores more
15%

BKMA at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "BKMA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BKMA vs Alashkert II

Alashkert II beat BKMA 2-1 in First League on June 11, 2020.

The match was played at Fut Akademia in Ejmiatsin.