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Alashkert II vs BKMA — First League 2019

Alashkert II
Alashkert II
FT
0 – 3
BKMA
BKMA
11/27/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Alashkert II19%
×Draw18%
BKMA63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alashkert II
1.35
BKMA
2.58

BKMA creates 91% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 27 away

creates per match

Alashkert II
1.63
BKMA
2.81

allows per match

Alashkert II
2.34
BKMA
1.07

finishing

Alashkert II+0.00on par
BKMA+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert II ↓

BKMA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Alashkert II or draw
37%
Alashkert II or BKMA
82%
Draw or BKMA
81%

Winning margin

Alashkert II wins by 2+
8%
BKMA wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Alashkert II 1+ goals
74%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
39%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
15%
BKMA 1+ goals
92%
BKMA 2+ goals
72%
BKMA 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Alashkert II (draw refunded)
23%
BKMA (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

BKMA away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert II attack 1.63 + BKMA defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

BKMA attack 2.81 + Alashkert II defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Alashkert II scores more
19%
level
18%
BKMA scores more
63%

BKMA at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "BKMA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Alashkert II 0–3 BKMA

BKMA beat Alashkert II 3-0 in First League on November 27, 2020.

The match was played at Fut Akademia in Ejmiatsin.