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BKMA II vs Alashkert II — First League 2019

BKMA II
BKMA II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alashkert II
Alashkert II
10/21/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Football Academy 3rd pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

BKMA II66%
×Draw17%
Alashkert II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKMA II
2.64
Alashkert II
1.26

BKMA II creates 110% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 64 away

creates per match

BKMA II
2.70
Alashkert II
1.39

allows per match

BKMA II
1.13
Alashkert II
2.58

finishing

BKMA II+0.00on par
Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA II ↓

Alashkert II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

BKMA II or draw
84%
BKMA II or Alashkert II
83%
Draw or Alashkert II
34%

Winning margin

BKMA II wins by 2+
45%
Alashkert II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

BKMA II 1+ goals
93%
BKMA II 2+ goals
74%
BKMA II 3+ goals
48%
Alashkert II 1+ goals
72%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
36%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

BKMA II (draw refunded)
80%
Alashkert II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA II at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA II attack 2.70 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.64

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + BKMA II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

BKMA II scores more
66%
level
17%
Alashkert II scores more
16%

BKMA II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "BKMA II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BKMA II vs Alashkert II

BKMA II beat Alashkert II 2-1 in First League on October 21, 2022.

The match was played at Football Academy 3rd pitch in Yerevan.