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Alashkert II vs BKMA II — First League 2019

Alashkert II
Alashkert II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
BKMA II
BKMA II
11/11/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Alashkert II24%
×Draw20%
BKMA II56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alashkert II
1.44
BKMA II
2.27

BKMA II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 71 away

creates per match

Alashkert II
1.63
BKMA II
2.20

allows per match

Alashkert II
2.34
BKMA II
1.24

finishing

Alashkert II+0.00on par
BKMA II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert II ↓

BKMA II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Alashkert II or draw
44%
Alashkert II or BKMA II
80%
Draw or BKMA II
76%

Winning margin

Alashkert II wins by 2+
10%
BKMA II wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Alashkert II 1+ goals
76%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
42%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
18%
BKMA II 1+ goals
90%
BKMA II 2+ goals
66%
BKMA II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Alashkert II (draw refunded)
30%
BKMA II (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

BKMA II away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert II attack 1.63 + BKMA II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

BKMA II attack 2.20 + Alashkert II defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alashkert II scores more
24%
level
20%
BKMA II scores more
56%

BKMA II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "BKMA II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alashkert II vs BKMA II

BKMA II beat Alashkert II 3-1 in First League on November 11, 2022.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik Stadium in Ashtarak.