BK Hacken 0–2 Osters IF: Result & Stats

BK Hacken

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Osters IF

8/17/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 20Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

BK Hacken57%

×Draw22%

Osters IF21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BK HackenExpected goals in this matchOsters IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.07

BK Hacken

1.92

Osters IF

1.07

BK Hacken creates 79% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 16 away

2.20

creates per match

0.88

1.27

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

BK Hacken

2.20

Osters IF

0.88

allows per match

BK Hacken

1.27

Osters IF

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BK Hacken+0.00on par

Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

Osters IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw

79%

BK Hacken or Osters IF

78%

Draw or Osters IF

43%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+

33%

Osters IF wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals

85%

BK Hacken 2+ goals

57%

BK Hacken 3+ goals

30%

Osters IF 1+ goals

66%

Osters IF 2+ goals

29%

Osters IF 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)

73%

Osters IF (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

Osters IF away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 2.20 + Osters IF defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.92

Osters IF attack 0.88 + BK Hacken defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

BK Hacken scores more

57%

level

22%

Osters IF scores more

21%

BK Hacken at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff