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BK Hacken vs Osters IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

BK Hacken
BK Hacken
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Osters IF
Osters IF
2/17/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

BK Hacken60%
×Draw21%
Osters IF19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BK Hacken
2.04
Osters IF
1.06

BK Hacken creates 92% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

BK Hacken
2.50
Osters IF
1.57

allows per match

BK Hacken
0.56
Osters IF
1.57

finishing

BK Hacken+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw
81%
BK Hacken or Osters IF
79%
Draw or Osters IF
40%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+
36%
Osters IF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals
87%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
60%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
33%
Osters IF 1+ goals
65%
Osters IF 2+ goals
29%
Osters IF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)
76%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 2.50 + Osters IF defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Osters IF attack 1.57 + BK Hacken defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

BK Hacken scores more
60%
level
21%
Osters IF scores more
19%

BK Hacken at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BK Hacken vs Osters IF

BK Hacken beat Osters IF 3-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 17, 2025.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.