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BK Hacken vs Malmo FF — Allsvenskan 2026

BK Hacken
BK Hacken
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
11/5/2023AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 29Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

BK Hacken32%
×Draw23%
Malmo FF45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BK Hacken
1.42
Malmo FF
1.74

Malmo FF creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

BK Hacken
1.65
Malmo FF
1.81

allows per match

BK Hacken
1.67
Malmo FF
1.20

finishing

BK Hacken+0.06on par
Malmo FF-0.10scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw
55%
BK Hacken or Malmo FF
77%
Draw or Malmo FF
68%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+
14%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals
76%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
41%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
17%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
82%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
52%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)
41%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.67 · 7 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 1.65 + Malmo FF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.42

Malmo FF attack 1.81 + BK Hacken defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

BK Hacken scores more
32%
level
23%
Malmo FF scores more
45%

Malmo FF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: BK Hacken 4–2 Malmo FF

BK Hacken beat Malmo FF 4-2 in Allsvenskan on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.