Bistrica 1–1 Bilje: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Bistrica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bilje

E. Marsetič 80'

K. Hadžiavdić 57'

10/19/2024

2. SNL · Round 11Športni park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bistrica53%

×Draw23%

Bilje24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BistricaExpected goals in this matchBilje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.21

Bistrica

1.89

Bilje

1.21

Bistrica creates 56% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 95 away

1.93

creates per match

1.24

1.18

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Bistrica

1.93

Bilje

1.24

allows per match

Bistrica

1.18

Bilje

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bistrica+0.00on par

Bilje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bistrica ↓

Bilje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bistrica or draw

76%

Bistrica or Bilje

77%

Draw or Bilje

47%

Winning margin

Bistrica wins by 2+

30%

Bilje wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bistrica 1+ goals

85%

Bistrica 2+ goals

56%

Bistrica 3+ goals

29%

Bilje 1+ goals

70%

Bilje 2+ goals

34%

Bilje 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bistrica (draw refunded)

69%

Bilje (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bistrica at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Bilje away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.85 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bistrica attack 1.93 + Bilje defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.89

Bilje attack 1.24 + Bistrica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bistrica scores more

53%

level

23%

Bilje scores more

24%

Bistrica at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bistrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

S. Krapukhin← J. Kralj

57'

61'

65'

65'

65'

65'

G. Gaberšek Rotovnik← M. Gomizelj

78'

S. Opačić← R. Frešer

78'

D. Bjelkić← K. Hadžiavdić

80'

E. Marsetič

Bistrica

Bilje

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: R. Pevnik

46'▲S. Krapukhin←▼J. Kralj

65'▲A. Bukovec←▼E. Kapun

65'▲M. Tavares←▼M. Kobal

78'▲S. Opačić←▼R. Frešer

Bistrica substitutes

KrapukhinBukovecTavaresOpačićKorošecBrumecKrižnikFridrihŠkerget

Manager: Ž. Pahor

65'▲D. Solić←▼E. Kostić

65'▲G. Gaberšek Rotovnik←▼M. Gomizelj

78'▲D. Bjelkić←▼K. Hadžiavdić

Bilje substitutes

SolićRotovnikBjelkićLipičarKovačevićMajićBregantiKoron