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Bilje vs Bistrica — 2. SNL 2019

Bilje
Bilje
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bistrica
Bistrica
10/18/20252. SNL2. SNL · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bilje41%
×Draw26%
Bistrica34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bilje
1.44
Bistrica
1.29

Bilje creates 12% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 60 away

creates per match

Bilje
1.41
Bistrica
1.30

allows per match

Bilje
1.28
Bistrica
1.48

finishing

Bilje+0.00on par
Bistrica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bilje ↓

Bistrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bilje or draw
66%
Bilje or Bistrica
74%
Draw or Bistrica
59%

Winning margin

Bilje wins by 2+
19%
Bistrica wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bilje 1+ goals
76%
Bilje 2+ goals
42%
Bilje 3+ goals
18%
Bistrica 1+ goals
72%
Bistrica 2+ goals
37%
Bistrica 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bilje (draw refunded)
55%
Bistrica (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bilje at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Bistrica away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bilje attack 1.41 + Bistrica defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bistrica attack 1.30 + Bilje defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bilje scores more
41%
level
26%
Bistrica scores more
34%

Bilje at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bilje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Bilje
Bistrica
Ž. Pahor
Manager: Ž. Pahor
Robert Pevnik
Manager: Robert Pevnik

Match Recap: Bilje vs Bistrica

Bilje and Bistrica drew 0-0 in 2. SNL on October 18, 2025.