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Bischofswerdaer FV vs Arnstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Bischofswerdaer FV
Bischofswerdaer FV
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Arnstadt
Arnstadt
2/3/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 15LaOla-Bolzplatz Bischofswerda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bischofswerdaer FV62%
×Draw20%
Arnstadt18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bischofswerdaer FV
2.16
Arnstadt
1.08

Bischofswerdaer FV creates 100% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 31 away

creates per match

Bischofswerdaer FV
1.87
Arnstadt
0.94

allows per match

Bischofswerdaer FV
1.23
Arnstadt
2.45

finishing

Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par
Arnstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bischofswerdaer FV ↓

Arnstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bischofswerdaer FV or draw
82%
Bischofswerdaer FV or Arnstadt
80%
Draw or Arnstadt
38%

Winning margin

Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+
39%
Arnstadt wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals
88%
Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals
63%
Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals
36%
Arnstadt 1+ goals
66%
Arnstadt 2+ goals
29%
Arnstadt 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)
77%
Arnstadt (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bischofswerdaer FV at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

Arnstadt away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.87 + Arnstadt defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.16

Arnstadt attack 0.94 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bischofswerdaer FV scores more
62%
level
20%
Arnstadt scores more
18%

Bischofswerdaer FV at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bischofswerdaer FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Bischofswerdaer FV 3–1 Arnstadt

Bischofswerdaer FV beat Arnstadt 3-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at LaOla-Bolzplatz Bischofswerda in Bischofswerda.