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Arnstadt vs Bischofswerdaer FV — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Arnstadt
Arnstadt
CANC
12:00
Bischofswerdaer FV
Bischofswerdaer FV
6/5/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 36Friedrich-Ludwig-Jahn-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Arnstadt29%
×Draw22%
Bischofswerdaer FV48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnstadt
1.45
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.91

Bischofswerdaer FV creates 32% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 77 away

creates per match

Arnstadt
1.31
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.57

allows per match

Arnstadt
2.24
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.58

finishing

Arnstadt+0.00on par
Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnstadt ↓

Bischofswerdaer FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Arnstadt or draw
52%
Arnstadt or Bischofswerdaer FV
78%
Draw or Bischofswerdaer FV
71%

Winning margin

Arnstadt wins by 2+
13%
Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Arnstadt 1+ goals
77%
Arnstadt 2+ goals
42%
Arnstadt 3+ goals
18%
Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals
85%
Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals
57%
Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Arnstadt (draw refunded)
38%
Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnstadt at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

Bischofswerdaer FV away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnstadt attack 1.31 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.57 + Arnstadt defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arnstadt scores more
29%
level
22%
Bischofswerdaer FV scores more
48%

Bischofswerdaer FV at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bischofswerdaer FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arnstadt face Bischofswerdaer FV (Oberliga - Nordost-Süd)

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd returns with Arnstadt hosting Bischofswerdaer FV. Match starts June 5, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arnstadt host Bischofswerdaer FV at Friedrich-Ludwig-Jahn-Sportplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.