Bischofswerdaer FV 7–0 An der Fahner Höhe

Bischofswerdaer FV

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

An der Fahner Höhe

5/13/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 31Volksbank Arena Bischofswerda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bischofswerdaer FV53%

×Draw23%

An der Fahner Höhe24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bischofswerdaer FVExpected goals in this matchAn der Fahner Höhe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.13

Bischofswerdaer FV

1.79

An der Fahner Höhe

1.13

Bischofswerdaer FV creates 58% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 37 away

1.87

creates per match

1.03

1.23

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Bischofswerdaer FV

1.87

An der Fahner Höhe

1.03

allows per match

Bischofswerdaer FV

1.23

An der Fahner Höhe

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par

An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bischofswerdaer FV ↓

An der Fahner Höhe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bischofswerdaer FV or draw

76%

Bischofswerdaer FV or An der Fahner Höhe

77%

Draw or An der Fahner Höhe

47%

Winning margin

Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+

29%

An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals

83%

Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals

53%

Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals

26%

An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals

68%

An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals

31%

An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)

69%

An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bischofswerdaer FV at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

An der Fahner Höhe away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.87 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.79

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.03 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bischofswerdaer FV scores more

53%

level

23%

An der Fahner Höhe scores more

24%

Bischofswerdaer FV at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bischofswerdaer FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff