An der Fahner Höhe 3–2 Bischofswerdaer FV

An der Fahner Höhe

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bischofswerdaer FV

11/26/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 14Kunstrasenplatz Volkspark-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

An der Fahner Höhe35%

×Draw24%

Bischofswerdaer FV42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

An der Fahner HöheExpected goals in this matchBischofswerdaer FV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.67

An der Fahner Höhe

1.50

Bischofswerdaer FV

1.67

Bischofswerdaer FV creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 77 away

1.41

creates per match

1.57

1.76

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

An der Fahner Höhe

1.41

Bischofswerdaer FV

1.57

allows per match

An der Fahner Höhe

1.76

Bischofswerdaer FV

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

An der Fahner Höhe ↓

Bischofswerdaer FV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

An der Fahner Höhe or draw

58%

An der Fahner Höhe or Bischofswerdaer FV

76%

Draw or Bischofswerdaer FV

65%

Winning margin

An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+

16%

Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals

78%

An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals

44%

An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals

19%

Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals

81%

Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals

50%

Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)

45%

Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

An der Fahner Höhe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

Bischofswerdaer FV away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.41 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.57 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

An der Fahner Höhe scores more

35%

level

24%

Bischofswerdaer FV scores more

42%

Bischofswerdaer FV at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bischofswerdaer FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff