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Birmingham vs Ipswich — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Ipswich
Ipswich
L. Jutkiewicz 68', 48'
M. Pennington 41'
J. Nolan 26'
9/29/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10St. Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Birmingham40%
×Draw27%
Ipswich33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.36
Ipswich
1.21

Birmingham creates 12% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.55
Ipswich
1.43

allows per match

Birmingham
0.98
Ipswich
1.18

finishing

Birmingham-0.09on par
Ipswich+0.14scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
67%
Birmingham or Ipswich
73%
Draw or Ipswich
60%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
19%
Ipswich wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
74%
Birmingham 2+ goals
39%
Birmingham 3+ goals
16%
Ipswich 1+ goals
70%
Ipswich 2+ goals
34%
Ipswich 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
55%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 35 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.18 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.55 + Ipswich defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ipswich attack 1.43 + Birmingham defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Birmingham scores more
40%
level
27%
Ipswich scores more
33%

Birmingham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. JutkiewiczBirminghamBirmingham · F
8.6

Match Events

26'
J. Nolan↳ K. Jackson
41'
M. Pennington↳ G. Ward
46'
M. Kieftenbeld← G. Gardner
48'
L. Jutkiewicz↳ Jota Peleteiro
52'
Matthew Pennington
64'
C. Mahoney← C. Lakin
68'
L. Jutkiewicz
81'
F. Sears← G. Ward
88'
Matthew Pennington
88'
Matthew Pennington
89'
J. Donacien← G. Edwards
90'
Cole Skuse

Possession

51%Birmingham

Shots

22Birmingham

Pass accuracy

50%Birmingham

Statistics

BirminghamIpswich
Overview
51%Possession49%
22Total Shots7
10Corners2
11Fouls16
Shots
22Total Shots7
8On Target3
9Off Target3
5Blocked1
16Inside Box5
6Outside Box2
Passing
51%Possession49%
328Total Passes325
184Accurate Passes179
56%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls16
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1

Match Recap: Birmingham vs Ipswich

Birmingham and Ipswich drew 2-2 in Championship on September 29, 2018.

Goals: J. Nolan (26'), M. Pennington (41'), L. Jutkiewicz (48', 68').

Birmingham controlled possession (51%) and registered 22 shots to 7.

The match was played at St. Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham.