Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Birmingham vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
3/12/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Birmingham48%
×Draw26%
Hull City26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.52
Hull City
1.05

Birmingham creates 45% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 61 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.55
Hull City
1.12

allows per match

Birmingham
0.98
Hull City
1.50

finishing

Birmingham-0.09on par
Hull City+0.11scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
74%
Birmingham or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
52%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
24%
Hull City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
78%
Birmingham 2+ goals
45%
Birmingham 3+ goals
20%
Hull City 1+ goals
65%
Hull City 2+ goals
28%
Hull City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
65%
Hull City (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 35 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.50 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.55 + Hull City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hull City attack 1.12 + Birmingham defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Birmingham scores more
48%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
26%

Birmingham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
M. RobertsBirminghamBirmingham · D
7.6

Match Events

46'
Alfie Jones
56'
R. Woods← I. Šunjić
66'
M. Forss← T. Eaves
69'
T. Richards← J. Bacuna
84'
R. Slater← R. Longman
85'
T. Huddlestone← G. Docherty

Possession

51%Birmingham

Shots

13Birmingham

Pass accuracy

50%Birmingham

Statistics

BirminghamHull
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots8
5Corners6
10Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots8
2On Target2
5Off Target2
6Blocked4
9Inside Box6
4Outside Box2
Passing
51%Possession49%
347Total Passes334
240Accurate Passes235
69%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls15
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides3

Championship: Birmingham 0–0 Hull City

Birmingham and Hull City drew 0-0 in Championship on March 12, 2022.

Birmingham controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at St Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham.