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Birmingham vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
Che Adams 84', 45+4', 21'
K. Grosicki 73'
F. Campbell 61', 50'
11/10/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17St. Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Birmingham48%
×Draw26%
Hull City26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.52
Hull City
1.05

Birmingham creates 45% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 62 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.55
Hull City
1.12

allows per match

Birmingham
0.98
Hull City
1.49

finishing

Birmingham-0.09on par
Hull City+0.14scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
74%
Birmingham or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
52%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
24%
Hull City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
78%
Birmingham 2+ goals
45%
Birmingham 3+ goals
20%
Hull City 1+ goals
65%
Hull City 2+ goals
28%
Hull City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
65%
Hull City (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 35 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.49 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.55 + Hull City defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hull City attack 1.12 + Birmingham defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Birmingham scores more
48%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
26%

Birmingham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Che AdamsBirminghamBirmingham · F
9.1

Match Events

12'
Tommy Elphick
21'
Che Adams
24'
V. Solomon-Otabor← Jota Peleteiro
36'
Jackson Irvine
45+4'
Che Adams
46'
C. Martin← D. Batty
50'
F. Campbell↳ K. Grosicki
61'
F. Campbell
64'
C. Gardner← C. Lakin
65'
W. Harding← V. Solomon-Otabor
73'
K. Grosicki
78'
W. Keane← F. Campbell
81'
T. Kane← K. Grosicki
82'
Eric Lichaj
84'
Che Adams
90'
Michael Morrison

Possession

44%Birmingham

Shots

11Birmingham

Pass accuracy

46%Birmingham

Statistics

BirminghamHull
Overview
44%Possession56%
11Total Shots13
3Corners3
9Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots13
4On Target5
5Off Target7
2Blocked1
8Inside Box8
3Outside Box5
Passing
44%Possession56%
319Total Passes401
178Accurate Passes264
56%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Birmingham vs Hull City

Birmingham and Hull City drew 3-3 in Championship on November 10, 2018.

Goals: Che Adams (21', 45+4', 84'), F. Campbell (50', 61'), K. Grosicki (73').

Hull City controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at St. Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham.