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Birmingham vs Charlton — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
Preview
19:45
Charlton
Charlton
3/17/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 38
Big match
53%
Birmingham
model favours
53%25%22%

Birmingham have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Birmingham53%
×Draw25%
Charlton22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.58
Charlton
0.93

Birmingham creates 70% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 21 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.62
Charlton
0.89

allows per match

Birmingham
0.97
Charlton
1.55

finishing

Birmingham-0.07on par
Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
78%
Birmingham or Charlton
75%
Draw or Charlton
47%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
28%
Charlton wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
79%
Birmingham 2+ goals
47%
Birmingham 3+ goals
21%
Charlton 1+ goals
61%
Charlton 2+ goals
24%
Charlton 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
70%
Charlton (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Charlton attack 0.89 + Birmingham defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Birmingham scores more
53%
level
25%
Charlton scores more
22%

Birmingham at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Charlton have scored in 9 games running
  • Charlton score first in only 30% of matches
  • Birmingham have scored in 7 games running
  • 70% of Charlton’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Birmingham sit 10, Charlton 20 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Birmingham
Balanced
Charlton
Direct / counter-attacking
46%Possession44%
69%Pass accuracy71%
11.9Shots10.4
1.27xGBiggest gap0.99
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BirminghamCharlton

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

2
Birmingham
3
Draws
2
Charlton
Avg goals: 1.4BTTS: 43%
0–11–11–00–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Birmingham
WWWDW
Charlton
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Birmingham host Charlton

March 17, 2027: Birmingham take on Charlton in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.