Birmingham 0–4 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Cardiff

H. Wilson 86', 40', 9'

M. Harris 68'

5/1/2021

Championship · Round 45St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Birmingham52%

×Draw25%

Cardiff22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.93

Birmingham

1.57

Cardiff

0.93

Birmingham creates 69% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 34 away

1.78

creates per match

0.85

1.01

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Birmingham

1.78

Cardiff

0.85

allows per match

Birmingham

1.01

Cardiff

1.36

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Birmingham-0.05on par

Cardiff+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

78%

Birmingham or Cardiff

75%

Draw or Cardiff

48%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

27%

Cardiff wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

79%

Birmingham 2+ goals

46%

Birmingham 3+ goals

21%

Cardiff 1+ goals

61%

Cardiff 2+ goals

24%

Cardiff 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

70%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.01 · 11 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.78 + Cardiff defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.57

Cardiff attack 0.85 + Birmingham defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Birmingham scores more

52%

level

25%

Cardiff scores more

22%

Birmingham at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

H. Wilson

Cardiff · F

10.0

Match Events

9'

40'

46'

61'

62'

Iván Sánchez← J. Cogley

62'

N. Gordon← R. Harper

64'

J. Murphy← R. Colwill

68'

M. Harris↳ J. Murphy

74'

R. McGree← J. Leko

79'

H. Dean← M. Roberts

79'

G. Gardner← I. Šunjić

84'

Harlee Dean

86'

H. Wilson

87'

J. Williams← H. Wilson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamCardiff

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots13

4Corners4

11Fouls20

Shots

11Total Shots13

1On Target7

6Off Target2

4Blocked4

5Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

408Total Passes284

289Accurate Passes175

71%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls20

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4