Birmingham 0–0 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Blackpool

12/29/2024

League One · Round 23St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Birmingham57%

×Draw25%

Blackpool18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.80

Birmingham

1.62

Blackpool

0.80

Birmingham creates 102% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 134 away

2.04

creates per match

1.11

0.48

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Birmingham

2.04

Blackpool

1.11

allows per match

Birmingham

0.48

Blackpool

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

82%

Birmingham or Blackpool

75%

Draw or Blackpool

43%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

31%

Blackpool wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

80%

Birmingham 2+ goals

48%

Birmingham 3+ goals

22%

Blackpool 1+ goals

55%

Blackpool 2+ goals

19%

Blackpool 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

76%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches

Blackpool away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 2.04 + Blackpool defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.62

Blackpool attack 1.11 + Birmingham defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Birmingham scores more

57%

level

25%

Blackpool scores more

18%

Birmingham at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Husband

Blackpool · D

7.7

Match Events

9'

E. Laird← L. Buchanan

20'

Krystian Bielik

45'

L. Harris← E. Hansson

46'

J. Stansfield← L. Dykes

58'

58'

70'

71'

79'

J. Rhodes← A. Fletcher

80'

D. Ballard← K. Joseph

85'

J. Lawrence-Gabriel← R. Apter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamBlackpool

Overview

67%Possession33%

6Total Shots9

4Corners5

15Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots9

4On Target2

1Off Target6

1Blocked1

5Inside Box6

1Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

669Total Passes325

556Accurate Passes235

83%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1