Birmingham 0–1 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Blackpool

I. Poveda-Ocampo 74'

4/22/2023

Championship · Round 44St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Birmingham44%

×Draw27%

Blackpool30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.10

Birmingham

1.39

Blackpool

1.10

Birmingham creates 26% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 52 away

1.25

creates per match

0.92

1.29

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Birmingham

1.25

Blackpool

0.92

allows per match

Birmingham

1.29

Blackpool

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

70%

Birmingham or Blackpool

73%

Draw or Blackpool

56%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

21%

Blackpool wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

75%

Birmingham 2+ goals

40%

Birmingham 3+ goals

16%

Blackpool 1+ goals

67%

Blackpool 2+ goals

30%

Blackpool 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

59%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 175 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.25 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Birmingham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Birmingham scores more

44%

level

27%

Blackpool scores more

30%

Birmingham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

D. Grimshaw

Blackpool · G

8.2

Match Events

44'

Andy Lyons

62'

I. Poveda-Ocampo← S. Carey

65'

J. Bacuna← H. Mejbri

74'

I. Poveda-Ocampo↳ M. Rogers

76'

C. Connolly← J. Bowler

78'

J. Graham← J. Bellingham

78'

M. Emmanuel← J. James

78'

T. Deeney← T. Chong

83'

A. Chang← K. Bielik

84'

J. Husband← J. Thorniley

85'

B. Holmes← I. Poveda-Ocampo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamBlackpool

Overview

50%Possession50%

16Total Shots12

6Corners7

15Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots12

7On Target2

6Off Target3

3Blocked7

11Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

304Total Passes307

209Accurate Passes200

69%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5